The Prognostic Role of Plasma Epstein-Barr Virus DNA Levels in the Middle of Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy to Guide Cisplatin Dose Recommendation in Concurrent Chemoradiation Therapy in Patients With Locally Advanced Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: A Large Cohort Study

Abstract

Purpose: Our purpose was to investigate the prognostic role of plasma Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA levels in the middle of intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). Methods and Materials: In total, 1881 patients with stage III-IVa tumors were included. The overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and the differences were compared using the log-rank test. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to analyze the diagnostic value of EBV DNA levels for tumor progression or death. Multivariate analyses using the Cox model were used to evaluate potential prognostic factors. Results: The positive predict value and negative predict value of plasma EBV DNA > 0 copies/mL in the middle of IMRT in predicting nasopharyngeal carcinoma progression was 37.4% and 85.5%, respectively. In patients with plasma EBV DNA level = 0 copies/mL, no significant differences in OS were observed between patients treated with 200 mg/m² cisplatin and those treated with >200 mg/m² cisplatin (5-year OS, 94.9% vs 94.4%; PFS, 81.5% vs 87.6%). However, those treated with >200 mg/m² cisplatin had higher PFS. In patients with plasma EBV DNA level > 0 copies/mL, patients treated with >200 mg/m² cisplatin displayed a favorable 5-year OS (84.6% vs 73.9%) and PFS (72.3% vs 54.8%) compared with those treated with 200 mg/m² cisplatin. Additionally, higher incidences of grade 3 and 4 adverse events were recorded in patients treated with >200 mg/m² cisplatin than in those treated with 200 mg/m² cisplatin. Conclusions: Plasma EBV DNA > 0 copies/mL in the middle of IMRT suggests that higher doses of chemotherapy should be used. For concurrent chemoradiation therapy, >200 mg/m² cisplatin is recommended for patients with plasma EBV DNA level > 0 copies/mL in the middle of IMRT but not for patients with plasma EBV DNA level = 0 copies/mL considering the similar OS rates.