An Empirical Study on the Impact Path of Urbanization to Carbon Emissions in the China Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

Abstract

Urbanization is an important factor in the growth of carbon emissions, as the city is a dense area of carbon emissions. This paper estimates the carbon emissions at the provincial, municipal, and county spatial scales in the Yangtze River Delta region during 2008–2015. On this basis, this paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the pathway and difference of the urbanization to the carbon emission by using the scale variance decomposition method, the space correlation analysis method, the mediation effect test method, and the space panel data model. The results show that the urbanization of the Yangtze River Delta has a significant positive impact on carbon emissions; The pathway from urbanization to industrial structure has a significant impact on carbon emissions. Although the pathway from industrial structure to urbanization to carbon emissions is insignificant, the industrial structure directly affects carbon emissions. There is a significant path from urbanization to the level of economic development to carbon emissions, but there is no mechanism for the economic development level to adversely affect the level of urbanization and thus affect carbon emissions; the chain action pathway from the urbanization level to the employment level to the economic development level to carbon emissions is not significant. Finally, based on the research conclusions, the corresponding policy recommendations are submitted.

Keywords

• urbanization
• carbon emissions
• mediation effect
• spatial panel data model
• scale effect