An exercise in decision support modelling for islands: a case study for a ‘typical’ Mediterranean island

Abstract

Decision support for island management must be based on quantitative tools able to integrate the natural, economic, and social environment, including the effects of recent climate change. In this context, a decision support framework is proposed, characterized by generality and flexibility, to be adapted to the specific characteristics of each island. The framework includes: (a) compilation of existing information and organization in a DPSIR framework; (b) selection of the main economic activities; (c) calculation of environmental, economic, and social indicators through models; (d) development of scenarios for future evolution; and (e) ranking for their preferability using a multicriteria methodology. Scenario development and weighting of indicators and criteria can be based on stakeholders’ and public views collected through questionnaires. The proposed framework is applied to a ‘typical’ fictitious Mediterranean island where tourism, services, and low-rate agriculture are the main economic activities. Mid- and long-term (including climate change) scenario analyses are performed as an exercise with three scenarios expressing different policies in terms of economic and environmental priorities. Advantages and limitations of the proposed framework for real-world applications are discussed.

Keywords

• climate change
• models
• multicriteria analysis
• public participation
• scenarios
• sustainability