Uncertainty estimation for a new exponential-filter-based long-term root-zone soil moisture dataset from Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) surface observations

Abstract

Soil moisture is a key variable in monitoring climate and an important component of the hydrological, carbon, and energy cycles. Satellite products ameliorate the sparsity of field measurements but are inherently limited to observing the near-surface layer, while water available in the unobserved root-zone controls critical processes like plant water uptake and evapotranspiration. A variety of approaches exist for modelling root-zone soil moisture (RZSM), including approximating it from surface layer observations. While the number of available RZSM datasets is growing, they usually do not contain estimates of their uncertainty. In this paper we derive a long-term RZSM dataset (2002–2020) from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) surface soil moisture (SSM) COMBINED product via the exponential filter (EF) method. We identify the optimal value of the method's model parameter T, which controls the level of smoothing and delaying applied to the surface observations, by maximizing the correlation of RZSM estimates with field measurements from the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN). Optimized T-parameter values were calculated for four soil depth layers (0–10, 10–40, 40–100, and 100–200 cm) and used to calculate a global RZSM dataset. The quality of this dataset is then globally evaluated against RZSM estimates of the ERA5-Land reanalysis. Results of the product comparison show satisfactory skill in all four layers, with the median Pearson correlation ranging from 0.54 in the topmost to 0.28 in the deepest soil layer. Temporally dynamic product uncertainties for each of the RZSM product layers are estimated by applying standard uncertainty propagation to SSM input data and by estimating structural uncertainties in the EF method from ISMN ground reference measurements taken at the surface and at varying depths. Uncertainty estimates were found to exhibit both realistic absolute magnitudes and temporal variations. The product described here is, to the best of our knowledge, the first global, long-term, uncertainty-characterized, and purely observation-based product for RZSM estimates up to 2 m depth.