Forecasting and Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emissions in Key Industries: A Case Study in Henan Province, China

Abstract

In a global context where sustainable growth is imperative, understanding carbon emissions in significant regions is essential. Henan Province, being a vital region in China for population, agriculture, industry, and energy consumption, plays a crucial role in this understanding. This study, rooted in the need to identify strategies that not only meet China’s broader carbon neutrality objectives but also offer insights regarding global sustainability models, utilizes the STIRPAT model combined with scenario analysis. The aim was to forecast carbon emission trajectories from 2020 to 2060 across the key industries—electricity, steel, cement, transportation, coal, and chemical—that are responsible for over 80% of the total emissions in Henan. The findings suggest a varied carbon peak timeline: the steel and cement industries might achieve their peak before 2025, and the transportation, coal, and chemical sectors might achieve theirs around 2030, whereas that of the power industry could be delayed until 2033. Significantly, by 2060—a landmark year for Chinese carbon neutrality ambitions—only the electricity sector in Henan shows potential for zero emissions under an extreme scenario. This study’s results underscore the importance of region-specific strategies for achieving global carbon neutrality and offer a blueprint for other populous, industrialized regions worldwide.

Keywords

• STIRPAT extended model
• carbon emission trajectories
• carbon neutrality
• key industries in Henan Province
• scenario analysis