PLoS ONE (Jan 2021)

Predicting price intervals under exogenously induced stress.

  • Steven Shead,
  • Robert B Durand,
  • Stephanie Thomas

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0255038
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 16, no. 9
p. e0255038

Abstract

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We present an experimental protocol to examine the relationship between exogenously induced stress and confidence in a setting applicable to financial markets. Confidence will be measured by a prediction interval for a one period ahead price forecast, based on a series of 100 previous prices; narrower (wider) prediction intervals will be indicative of greater (lower) confidence. Stress will be induced using the Cold Pressor Arm Wrap, a variation of the Cold Pressor Test. Risk attitudes, and personality traits are also considered as mediating factors.