Hierarchical Correlates of the Shrinkage of Cities and Towns in Northeast China

Abstract

The growth and shrinkage of cities and towns are normal phenomena in the evolution of regional town systems. The growth and shrinkage of different levels of cities and towns are mutually influential. This study uses ArcGIS and the Hierarchical Linear Model to analyze the hierarchical differences and correlations in the characteristics and mechanisms of shrinking cities and towns in Northeast China from 2000 to 2020. The results indicate that the shrinkage of cities and towns is characterized by hierarchical differences. High-level cities show widespread and slight shrinkage, while low-level towns show the most severe and continued shrinkage. The population shrinkage of cities and towns within the same municipality is not fully synchronized. In terms of spatial patterns, the multi-level relationship between cities and towns is divided into growth-driven, central siphon, peripheral growth, local growth, and global shrinkage. The shrinkage of high-level cities is mainly influenced by economic and industrial development and built-up environment. The shrinkage of low-level towns is constrained by population concentration, economic development, enterprise scale, local arable land resources, and environmental quality. Wages, jobs, and infrastructures in high-level cities have a strong siphoning effect on low-level towns, while technology and industrial development drive the population and economic development of low-level towns.

Keywords

• urban shrinkage
• difference and correlation
• Hierarchical Linear Model
• Northeast China