A stakeholder-driven holistic approach to mitigate drought in Ramsar wetlands: evaluation of nature-based solutions using interval analytic hierarchy process

Abstract

Wetland ecosystems are vital in maintaining the ecological balance of the wider area. The increase of frequent and intense droughts due to accelerated climate changes poses a threat to wetlands as fragile ecosystems which further require a holistic approach and cooperation between stakeholders to define long-term sustainable solutions. This paper focuses on identifying nature-based solutions to mitigate drought in Ramsar-designated sites through understanding the preferences of stakeholders for effective implementation. An interval version of the analytic hierarchy process is proposed as a systematic framework for selecting solutions considering multiple objectives (climate change mitigation, biodiversity preservation, and human welfare) and six alternatives applicable to Ramsar wetlands. The Serbian case study demonstrates the evaluation of alternatives using interval values in pairwise comparison matrices and priority weights were computed by linear programming. Top-ranked measures identified by three experts involve increasing water availability, supporting agroforestry practices, and utilizing natural reservoirs. Mulch and wastewater reuse are excluded due to implementation investments. The added value of the proposed approach is that the results can be used by managers and decision-makers in many ways; for example, weights of the alternatives could indicate resource allocation, while rankings serve as indicators for optimizing the number of applied solutions. HIGHLIGHTS Wetlands face threats from both human activities and natural drivers.; Ramsar wetlands can benefit from nature-based solutions to preserve water resources during drought.; The proposed interval AHP selects a nature-based solution for drought mitigation, allowing experts to consider a range of values rather than a crisp value in the evaluation process.; Experts prioritize water-increasing solutions over different nature-based solutions for effective drought response.;

Keywords

• drought mitigation
• interval ahp
• nature-based solution
• ramsar wetlands
• stakeholder engagement