Future Development Of Migration Processes And Labour Market In The Regions Of Russia

Abstract

Russia’s reasons for the continuing need of the foreign labor influx were researched. Forecast of the interdependent labor market development and migration processes in the regions of Russian is proposed as a scientific basis for better regulation of the international labor migration. The genesis of approaches to migration modeling, revealing the lack of tools for the simultaneous prediction of migration processes and the labor market was studied. A developed model complex allows to predict: 1) migration flows, determined by the wages level difference and the distance between the country of origin and the destination regions, number of potential migrants in countries of origin and the number of migrants who arrived earlier in the regions of destination; 2) migrants’ employment in the region, considering changes in the job availability as a result of the migrants influx to the regional labor markets, characterized by search tensions; 3) the level of wages in the region, considering the bargaining power of the worker. The application of the model complex to the statistical data resulted in obtaining of the forecast flows of migrants in the Russian regions from the CIS and their influence on the regional labor markets development up to 2020. Based on this forecast, the recommendations to improve the management of the international labor migration in the Russian regions were developed

Keywords

• international labor migration
• unemployment
• wage
• region
• search model and appropriate match selection
• forecast