Assessment and sero-diagnosis for coronaviruses with risk of human spillover

Abstract

Zoonotic coronaviruses (CoVs) caused major human outbreaks in the last two decades. One of the biggest challenges during future CoV disease is ensuring rapid detection and diagnosis at the early phase of a zoonotic event, and active surveillance to the zoonotic high-risk CoVs appears the best way at the present time to provide early warnings. However, there is neither an evaluation of spillover potential nor diagnosis tools for the majority of CoVs. Here, we analyzed the viral traits, including population, genetic diversity, receptor and host species for all 40 alpha- and beta-CoV species, where the human-infecting CoVs are from. Our analysis proposed 20 high-risk CoV species, including 6 of which jumped to human, 3 with evidence of spillover but not to human and 11 without evidence of spillover yet, which prediction were further supported by an analysis of the history of CoV zoonosis. We also found three major zoonotic sources: multiple bat-origin CoV species, the rodent-origin sub-genus Embecovirus and the CoV species AlphaCoV1. Moreover, the Rhinolophidae and Hipposideridae bats harbour a significantly higher proportion of human-threatening CoV species, whereas camel, civet, swine and pangolin could be important intermediate hosts during CoV zoonotic transmission. Finally, we established quick and sensitive serologic tools for a list of proposed high-risk CoVs and validated the methods in serum cross-reaction assays using hyper-immune rabbit sera or clinical samples. By comprehensive risk assessment of the potential human-infecting CoVs, our work provides a theoretical or practical basis for future CoV disease preparedness.

Keywords

• Coronavirus
• spillover
• zoonosis
• risk assessment
• bats
• serology