Zhongguo quanke yixue (Oct 2023)
Prevalence Trends of Multimorbidity among Residents in Mainland China: a Meta-analysis
Abstract
Background The estimation of the prevalence of multimorbidity and identification of high-risk populations can directly affect the corresponding rational allocation of public health resources. Objective To comprehensively describe the prevalence trends and population characteristics of multimorbidity among residents in mainland China from 1998-2019 through Meta-analysis. Methods The databases including Web of Science, PubMed, CNKI, Wanfang Data Knowledge Service Platform and VIP were searched for journal literature relevant to the prevalence of multimorbidity in mainland China from inception to 2022-04-30. Data extraction and quality evaluation were performed on the literature and meta-analysis was performed using Stata 14.0 software. The pooled prevalence of multimorbidity was calculated by using random effects model, and subgroup analysis of the prevalence of multimorbidity was conducted based on survey time (before 2004, 2004-2013, since 2014), gender, region (urban, rural), geographical area (east, central, west, northeast), education level (uneducated, primary school, secondary school and above), marital status (married, others), and research quality (low, medium, high) . Results A total of 123 papers were included into analysis with a total sample size of 7 714 313 cases. There was significant heterogeneity among studies (I2=100.0%, P<0.001), and the prevalence of multimorbidity was 36.3%〔95%CI (32.8%, 39.9%) 〕. Meta-linear regression model showed a non-linear increasing trend in the prevalence of multimorbidity from 1998 to 2019〔β=0.013, 95%CI (0.006, 0.019) 〕. The results of the subgroup analysis showed that the prevalence of multimorbidity was higher since 2014〔40.4%, 95%CI (33.0%, 47.8%) 〕 than before 2004〔14.5%, 95%CI (12.5%, 16.5%) 〕 and 2004-2013〔35.2%, 95%CI (32.2%, 38.2%) 〕 (P<0.001) ; the prevalence of multimorbidity was higher among those aged 60-79 years〔38.1%, 95%CI (34.6%, 41.5%) 〕 than those aged ≥80 years〔36.6%, 95%CI (32.5%, 40.8%) 〕, 40-59 years〔27.7%, 95%CI (24.4%, 31.1%) 〕, and <40 years〔10.6%, 95%CI (9.0%, 12.3%) 〕 (P<0.001). There was no significant difference in the subgroup analysis of gender, education level, marital status, region, geographical area, type of chronic disease, quality of research, and the comparison of the prevalence of multimorbidity (P>0.05) . Conclusion The prevalence of multimorbidity among residents in mainland China was 36.3% from 1998 to 2019 with a rising trend and significant differences in age, therefore, attention should be paid to the early screening of high-risk population, active and effective strategies for prevention and control should be adopted.
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