Global Ecology and Conservation (Oct 2024)
Global climate change increases the risk of invasion and the expansion of paper mulberry in the subtropical region
Abstract
There is an ongoing debate about the potential of localized conservation efforts to address the ecological challenges brought about by global climate shifts. Among these challenges, biological invasion negatively affects ecosystem health and biodiversity. In this study, we assessed the potential impact of global climate changes and human activities on the spread of the invasive species Broussonetia papyrifera in Pakistan's subtropical region. Jackknife analysis indicated that, among the climatic variables studied, the maximum temperature of the warmest month (bio05) made the most significant contribution, accounting for 25.6 % of the model's predictive capacity. Potential highly invaded regions are located in the territory of Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Attock, Nowshera, Swabi, Haripur, and Mardan. Some patches were also found to be invaded in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Abbottabad, Buner, Tor Ghar, and Peshawar) and Punjab (Narowal, Sialkot, Gujrat, Jhelum, and Chakwal). Specifically, based on all four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios for the 2050 s and 2070 s, the highly invaded regions of B. papyrifera are predicted to shift Northern Punjab, Eastern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Northern Kashmir. Based on the SSPs 245 and 585 scenarios, the majority of highly invaded regions are projected to expand by 2050. Similarly, within these regions, the potentially invaded land area is estimated to increase to 2.74 % under SSPs 585 in the 2050 s, 5.29 % under SSPs 245 in the 2070 s, and 6.27 % under SSPs 585 in the 2070 s. Applying circuit theory and ecological resistance, a surface connectivity map of the species revealed that Rawalpindi and Sargodha in Punjab had the most prominent corridors, with rates being highest where ecological patches continually merged. This study is the first to predict B. papyrifera distribution in Pakistan under current and future climate change scenarios. Implementing nationwide guidelines comprehensively may curb the spread of invasive species and protect native plant diversity from extinction. The findings of this study will aid in timely monitoring and surveillance of B. papyrifera and in formulating integrated management plans at the national level to prevent its invasion, spread, and potential harm to newly projected regions.
