Наукові праці Лісівничої академії наук України (Dec 2019)
Modelling Energy Transition Process using System Dynamics: Energy Cooperatives as a Tool for Transition to Sustainable Use of Wood Biomass in the Residential Sector
Abstract
Dominant energy generation paradigm is highly centralized, carbon intensive, and enable energy poverty. Global climate change imperative prioritizes energy transition to ensure effectiveness, inclusiveness and environmental safety of energy generation processes. One of the pillars of the process is a transition to sustainable use of wood biomass in the residential sector using energy cooperatives as a mean for the transition process facilitation. This transition process deals with a nexus of changes induced in different realms like social, ecological, economic, technological, educational etc. Counterintuitive dynamics of the processes can create synergies or trade-offs. To embrace a complexity of the process we proposed and applied system dynamics models. Causal loop diagram of the transition process was used to understand the scope. The model consists from two blocks: conceptual, which describes the general logic of the climate change mitigation, and operational one, which represents development of energy cooperatives (balancing and reinforcing loops correspondently). Stock-flow diagram was proposed for quantitative analysis of the energy cooperatives development process. The model is based on the Bass model of innovation diffusion (1980) and Sterman model of its system dynamics (2000). The stock-flow diagram was parameterized according to realities of Boryslav city. Features of Ukrainian institutional landscape were examined using regression analysis of 11 indicators, aggregated in Global Competitiveness Index 4.0 (WEF, 2018) to reflect complexity of competitiveness. According to results of regression analysis, we complemented the stock-flow diagram with another parameter – Institutions – which describes dependence of individuals’ economic activity on institutions’ performance. Simulation run for 8-year period using the parameterized stock-flow model demonstrated quite weak transition toward energy cooperatives – only 8.9% of homeowners – that can be explained by a poor performance of institutions in Ukraine. However, according to a survey we conducted in Boryslav, 18.1% of the respondents are familiar with the concept of energy cooperatives, of which one in five was ready to invest in the cooperative development; about half of the respondents likely to change the heating systems in their homes, which is easier to manage through renewable energy cooperatives. To get insight of wood biomass usage for Boryslav we run SWOT analysis and proposed four SWOTstrategies for the process facilitation. These recommendations were tested against ‘what-if’ questions using the proposed causal loop diagram of the transition process to reveal potential unintended consequences, additional interventions and uncertainties resulted from the process complexity. These findings facilitate understanding and deliberative governance of the process.
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