Evaluation of the distribution of Gumbel in the determination of minimum flows of the Rio Negro sub-basin

Abstract

The water is a natural resource that enables life on earth and the lack of information regarding the management of this resource makes planning and decision making difficult. In order to determine the risk of occurrence of minimum flows, which may restrict the water supply, it is estimated by means of water quality studies the occurrence of flows using probability curves. Therefore, the objective of the study was to verify the suitability of the Gumbel probability model to fit the 33-year historical series of minimum flows from the Rio Negro sub-basin. The Rio Negro covers 22 cities between Santa Catarina and São Paulo with several fluviometric stations in its vicinity, in which the data chosen for this study were from the Water of Paraná station in Piên, PR. The application of the Gumbel model showed that until the return time of 20 years there is variability in the data, after which the distribution does not fit the historical series. The conclusion of the study is that the use of the Gumbel model did not fit all the months of the historical series in question, proven by the performance of statistical adherence tests.

Keywords

• Série histórica. Mmodelo probabilístico. Tempo de retorno.