Topological characteristics of international business cycle synchronization: A network analysis of the BRI economies.

Abstract

Based on the GDP constant 2010 US$ from the World Bank, this paper uses the instantaneous quasi-correlation coefficient to measure the business cycle synchronization linkages among 53 Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) economies from 2000 to 2019, and empirically studies the topological characteristics of the Business Cycle Synchronization Network (BCSN) with the help of complex network analysis method. The main conclusions are as follows: First, the BCSN density and efficiency of BRI economies are still low, and it presents a topological feature of "small world". Second, the individual characteristics of the economies in the network are obviously different. Among them, China's relative influence is significantly increased, but its betweenness centrality level is still low. Third, since the inception of BRI, the topological characteristics of BCSN of BRI economies have undergone great changes, and their topological evolution has gradually reflected the characteristic of self-stability.