A Stochastic Frontier Model for Definition of Non-Technical Loss Targets

Abstract

The theft of electrical energy is one of the main problems faced by electricity distribution utilities, especially in developing countries. Aware of the difficulties in combating non-technical losses (NTLs) in Brazil, the National Electric Energy Agency (ANEEL) established tolerable limits for the percentage of non-technical losses to each Brazilian distribution utility. Despite the notable progress made by ANEEL, when comparing public utility NTLs and their regulatory targets in the last decade, it was observed that the goals defined by this agency were not able to lead to a general reduction in NTLs in the country. Thus, the search for alternative methodologies to deal with the topic is necessary. A more attractive alternative to the ANEEL’s model is an efficient frontier model. This paper describes a stochastic frontier cost model for panel data whose equation is specified to provide the tolerable limits for the percentage of NTLs. The proposed model was applied to a panel of data containing annual observations, over 10 years, of 41 distribution utilities in the Brazilian electrical system.

Keywords

• non-technical losses
• distribution
• stochastic frontier analysis
• panel data