A Study on Load Forecasting of Distribution Line Based on Ensemble Learning for Mid- to Long-Term Distribution Planning

Abstract

The complexity and uncertainty of the distribution system are increasing as the connection of distributed power sources using solar or wind energy is rapidly increasing, and digital loads are expanding. As these complexity and uncertainty keep increasing the investment cost for distribution facilities, optimal distribution planning becomes a matter of greater focus. This paper analyzed the existing mid-to-long-term load forecasting method for KEPCO’s distribution planning and proposed a mid- to long-term load forecasting method based on ensemble learning. After selecting optimal input variables required for the load forecasting model through correlation analysis, individual forecasting models were selected, which enabled the derivation of the optimal combination of ensemble load forecast models. This paper additionally offered an improved load forecasting model that considers the characteristics of each distribution line for enhancing the mid- to long-term distribution line load forecasting process for distribution planning. The study verified the performance of the proposed method by comparing forecasting values with actual values.

Keywords

• distribution system planning
• distribution line
• peak load
• hybrid forecasting model