Avoid non‐probability sampling to select population monitoring sites: Comment on McClure and Rolek (2023)

Abstract

Abstract Population monitoring programmes typically rely on sampling because it is impossible to survey all the sites within the study area. In such a situation, the general recommendation to obtain unbiased estimates of population trends is to select monitoring sites using probability sampling. However, site selection not based on probability sampling, such as selecting sites with the largest abundance of individuals at the beginning of the monitoring programme, is common in practice. Nevertheless, these methods carry the risk of obtaining biased trend estimates. Using simulations, McClure & Rolek (2023) investigated whether three non‐probability sampling site selection methods can yield unbiased trend estimates under some specific conditions. For two of these methods, that is selecting high quality sites and selecting sites known to be occupied, the authors conclude that there is a major risk of obtaining biased trend estimates. For the third method, that is selecting sites with the largest initial abundance, they found conditions in which unbiased estimates can be obtained. They conclude that the general recommendation to use probability sampling should be revised. Here, we show that the authors' results, although perfectly correct, do not invalidate this recommendation. First, we point out that the authors made strong assumptions about the populations' functioning in their simulations, especially that inter‐annual variance in abundance is similar for all sites, which is unlikely in most real populations. We show through simple simulations that even slightly relaxing this assumption invalidates the authors' results. We also point out that for most of the hypotheses made by the authors, it is generally not known at the beginning of a study whether they will be respected. Furthermore, the authors did not provide evidence that selecting sites based on high initial abundance leads to more precise trend estimates than probability sampling methods. Therefore, neither the benefits nor the risks of this method are known. We conclude that until evidence is provided that abundance‐based site selection improves estimate precision and the situations in which it provides unbiased estimates are clearly identified, using probability sampling should remain the rule.

Keywords

• biodiversity conservation
• demography
• occupancy
• population dynamics
• population monitoring
• sampling strategy