Land loss implications of sea level rise along the coastline of Colombia under different climate change scenarios

Abstract

The sea level has risen notably in recent decades compared to the most recent millennia. This poses serious threats to infrastructure, local jobs, environment and human population over the next century, especially in coastal zones. In this paper, the most up-to-date understanding of the climate system and climate change was used to investigate impacts of sea level rise on potential land loss along the Caribbean and Pacific coastlines of Colombia. Sea level rise projections published in August 2021 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the Sixth Assessment Report were used to identify the area at risk of land loss. Moreover, the potential socio-economic implications of these changes were discussed in regions affected by the projected sea level rises. We examined five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for the 21st century (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5. SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). Our results suggest a sea level rise of 1.04 m in the worst-case scenario (SSP5-8.5) which would threaten an area of 2840.64 km2. The land use in the affected zones was determined. The area at risk will impact 12 departments or 86 municipalities with different social, environmental, economic, and cultural conditions along the coastline of Colombia, that need to be considered when devising and implementing mitigation policies.