Journal of Computer Science and Technology (Dec 2018)

Short term cloud nowcasting for a solar power plant based on irradiance historical data

  • Rafael Caballero,
  • Luis F. Zarzalejo,
  • Álvaro Otero,
  • Luis Piñuel,
  • Stefan Wilbert

DOI
https://doi.org/10.24215/16666038.18.e21
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 18, no. 03
pp. e21 – e21

Abstract

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This work considers the problem of forecasting the normal solar irradiance with high spatial and temporal resolution (5 minutes). The forecasting is based on a dataset registered during one year from the high resolution radiometric network at a operational solar power plan at Almeria, Spain. In particular, we show a technique for forecasting the irradiance in the next few minutes from the irradiance values obtained on the previous hour. Our proposal employs a type of recurrent neural network known as LSTM, which can learn complex patterns and that has proven its usability for forecasting temporal series. The results show a reasonable improvement with respect to other prediction methods typically employed in the studies of temporal series.

Keywords