Impacts of Climate Change on Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Basin. Part II: Late Twenty-First Century Projections

Abstract

ABSTRACT: This paper reviews the latest studies on the relationship between projected late 21st century climate changes and tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin, which is the region of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP)/World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Typhoon Committee members. Existing studies of projected changes of TC activity in this basin, such as frequency, intensity, precipitation, genesis location and track pattern are summarized, based on an assumed A1B future climate change scenario. A review of available studies on projected future changes in WNP landfalling TC activity is also included.While it remains uncertain whether there has been any detectable human influence on tropical cyclone frequency, intensity, precipitation, track, or related aggregated storm activity metrics in the basin, modeling studies suggest changes in future tropical cyclone activity for the WNP basin. More models project decreases than increases in tropical storm frequency (range −70% to +60%); most studies project an increase in the TC intensity (range −3% to +18%); and all six available studies that include the WNP basin project increases in TC precipitation rates (range +5 to +30%). Keywords: tropical cyclone activity, climate change, projection, uncertainty