Ensemble forecast of human West Nile virus cases and mosquito infection rates

Nicholas B. DeFelice; Eliza Little; Scott R. Campbell; Jeffrey Shaman

doi:10.1038/ncomms14592

Nature Communications (Feb 2017)

Ensemble forecast of human West Nile virus cases and mosquito infection rates

Nicholas B. DeFelice,
Eliza Little,
Scott R. Campbell,
Jeffrey Shaman

Affiliations

Nicholas B. DeFelice: Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University
Eliza Little: Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University
Scott R. Campbell: Suffolk County Department of Health Services, Arthropod-Borne Disease Laboratory
Jeffrey Shaman: Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14592
Journal volume & issue: Vol. 8, no. 1
pp. 1 – 6

Abstract

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Since its introduction to the US in 1999, the West Nile virus (WNV) has become endemic in the Americas. Here, the authors develop a model of WNV transmission dynamics between birds, mosquitoes and humans, which they integrate in conjunction with data assimilation methods, mosquito infection data and reported human cases in a New York county to show its utility for forecasting infection rates.

Published in Nature Communications

ISSN: 2041-1723 (Online)
Publisher: Nature Portfolio
Country of publisher: United Kingdom
LCC subjects: Science
Website: https://www.nature.com/ncomms/

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