Integrated sea storm management strategy: the 29 October 2018 event in the Adriatic Sea

Abstract

Addressing coastal risks related to sea storms requires an integrative approach which combines monitoring stations, forecasting models, early warning systems, and coastal management and planning. Such great effort is sometimes possible only through transnational cooperation, which becomes thus vital to face, effectively and promptly, the marine events which are responsible for damage impacting the environment and citizens' life. Here we present a shared and interoperable system to allow a better exchange of and elaboration on information related to sea storms among countries. The proposed integrated web system (IWS) is a combination of a common data system for sharing ocean observations and forecasts, a multi-model ensemble system, a geoportal, and interactive geo-visualisation tools to make results available to the general public. The multi-model ensemble mean and spread for sea level height and wave characteristics are used to describe three different sea condition scenarios. The IWS is designed to provide sea state information required for issuing coastal risk alerts over the analysed region as well as for being easily integrated into existing local early warning systems. This study describes the application of the developed system to the exceptional storm event of 29 October 2018 that caused severe flooding and damage to coastal infrastructure in the Adriatic Sea. The forecasted ensemble products were successfully compared with in situ observations. The hazards estimated by integrating IWS results in existing early warning systems were confirmed by documented storm impacts along the coast of Slovenia, Emilia-Romagna and the city of Venice. For the investigated event, the most severe simulated scenario results provide a realistic and conservative estimation of the peak storm conditions to be used in coastal risk management.