Scenario-based land use simulation and integrated analysis of karst ecosystem service bundles

Abstract

Karst landscapes, characterized by unique soluble geological features, provide essential ecosystem services (ESs). However, they are currently facing significant challenges due to rapid land use/land cover (LULC) changes. Research that combines LULC and karst lithological features with ecosystem service bundles (ESBs) is scarce. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the future spatial distributions and landscape pattern features of ESBs in different lithological areas based on land use projections, and providing a basis for informing zoning land use planning and management. Firstly, multiple scenario simulations were conducted to project future land use changes in Huanjiang County, China. Next, based on the assessments of ESs and identification of ESBs, the correlations between LULC, ESBs, and landscape features in different lithological areas were explored. The results revealed the following: (1) a potential synergistic relationship between built-up land and ESB3, while a negative impact of transitioning from forest to cropland on ESB2; (2) the limestone area exhibited the highest overall split level of ESBs, while the non-karst area showed the greatest diversity, evenness, cohesion, and largest patches of ESBs; (3) the landscape heterogeneity of ESBs in different lithological areas was mainly reflected in split, cohesion, and division levels rather than aggregation. Finally, implications and site-specific suggestions for zoning land use planning and management in Huanjiang County were discussed.

Keywords

• Karst area
• Land use/land cover changes
• Scenario analysis
• Ecosystem service bundles
• Features of landscape patterns
• Land use planning and management