Communications Earth & Environment (Aug 2023)

Joint optimization of land carbon uptake and albedo can help achieve moderate instantaneous and long-term cooling effects

  • Alexander Graf,
  • Georg Wohlfahrt,
  • Sergio Aranda-Barranco,
  • Nicola Arriga,
  • Christian Brümmer,
  • Eric Ceschia,
  • Philippe Ciais,
  • Ankur R. Desai,
  • Sara Di Lonardo,
  • Mana Gharun,
  • Thomas Grünwald,
  • Lukas Hörtnagl,
  • Kuno Kasak,
  • Anne Klosterhalfen,
  • Alexander Knohl,
  • Natalia Kowalska,
  • Michael Leuchner,
  • Anders Lindroth,
  • Matthias Mauder,
  • Mirco Migliavacca,
  • Alexandra C. Morel,
  • Andreas Pfennig,
  • Hendrik Poorter,
  • Christian Poppe Terán,
  • Oliver Reitz,
  • Corinna Rebmann,
  • Arturo Sanchez-Azofeifa,
  • Marius Schmidt,
  • Ladislav Šigut,
  • Enrico Tomelleri,
  • Ke Yu,
  • Andrej Varlagin,
  • Harry Vereecken

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00958-4
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 4, no. 1
pp. 1 – 12

Abstract

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Abstract Both carbon dioxide uptake and albedo of the land surface affect global climate. However, climate change mitigation by increasing carbon uptake can cause a warming trade-off by decreasing albedo, with most research focusing on afforestation and its interaction with snow. Here, we present carbon uptake and albedo observations from 176 globally distributed flux stations. We demonstrate a gradual decline in maximum achievable annual albedo as carbon uptake increases, even within subgroups of non-forest and snow-free ecosystems. Based on a paired-site permutation approach, we quantify the likely impact of land use on carbon uptake and albedo. Shifting to the maximum attainable carbon uptake at each site would likely cause moderate net global warming for the first approximately 20 years, followed by a strong cooling effect. A balanced policy co-optimizing carbon uptake and albedo is possible that avoids warming on any timescale, but results in a weaker long-term cooling effect.