Frontiers in Marine Science (Oct 2019)

Observational Needs Supporting Marine Ecosystems Modeling and Forecasting: From the Global Ocean to Regional and Coastal Systems

  • Antonietta Capotondi,
  • Antonietta Capotondi,
  • Michael Jacox,
  • Michael Jacox,
  • Michael Jacox,
  • Chris Bowler,
  • Chris Bowler,
  • Maria Kavanaugh,
  • Patrick Lehodey,
  • Daniel Barrie,
  • Stephanie Brodie,
  • Stephanie Brodie,
  • Samuel Chaffron,
  • Samuel Chaffron,
  • Wei Cheng,
  • Wei Cheng,
  • Daniela F. Dias,
  • Damien Eveillard,
  • Damien Eveillard,
  • Lionel Guidi,
  • Lionel Guidi,
  • Daniele Iudicone,
  • Nicole S. Lovenduski,
  • Janet A. Nye,
  • Ivonne Ortiz,
  • Douglas Pirhalla,
  • Mercedes Pozo Buil,
  • Mercedes Pozo Buil,
  • Vincent Saba,
  • Scott Sheridan,
  • Samantha Siedlecki,
  • Aneesh Subramanian,
  • Colomban de Vargas,
  • Colomban de Vargas,
  • Emanuele Di Lorenzo,
  • Scott C. Doney,
  • Albert J. Hermann,
  • Albert J. Hermann,
  • Terrence Joyce,
  • Mark Merrifield,
  • Arthur J. Miller,
  • Fabrice Not,
  • Fabrice Not,
  • Stephane Pesant

DOI
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00623
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 6

Abstract

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Many coastal areas host rich marine ecosystems and are also centers of economic activities, including fishing, shipping and recreation. Due to the socioeconomic and ecological importance of these areas, predicting relevant indicators of the ecosystem state on sub-seasonal to interannual timescales is gaining increasing attention. Depending on the application, forecasts may be sought for variables and indicators spanning physics (e.g., sea level, temperature, currents), chemistry (e.g., nutrients, oxygen, pH), and biology (from viruses to top predators). Many components of the marine ecosystem are known to be influenced by leading modes of climate variability, which provide a physical basis for predictability. However, prediction capabilities remain limited by the lack of a clear understanding of the physical and biological processes involved, as well as by insufficient observations for forecast initialization and verification. The situation is further complicated by the influence of climate change on ocean conditions along coastal areas, including sea level rise, increased stratification, and shoaling of oxygen minimum zones. Observations are thus vital to all aspects of marine forecasting: statistical and/or dynamical model development, forecast initialization, and forecast validation, each of which has different observational requirements, which may be also specific to the study region. Here, we use examples from United States (U.S.) coastal applications to identify and describe the key requirements for an observational network that is needed to facilitate improved process understanding, as well as for sustaining operational ecosystem forecasting. We also describe new holistic observational approaches, e.g., approaches based on acoustics, inspired by Tara Oceans or by landscape ecology, which have the potential to support and expand ecosystem modeling and forecasting activities by bridging global and local observations.

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