No Change of <i>Pneumocystis jirovecii</i> Pneumonia after the COVID-19 Pandemic: Multicenter Time-Series Analyses

Abstract

Consolidated infection control measures imposed by the government and hospitals during COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a sharp decline of respiratory viruses. Based on the issue of whether Pneumocystis jirovecii could be transmitted by airborne and acquired from the environment, we assessed changes in P. jirovecii pneumonia (PCP) cases in a hospital setting before and after COVID-19. We retrospectively collected data of PCP-confirmed inpatients aged ≥18 years (N = 2922) in four university-affiliated hospitals between January 2015 and June 2021. The index and intervention dates were defined as the first time of P. jirovecii diagnosis and January 2020, respectively. We predicted PCP cases for post-COVID-19 and obtained the difference (residuals) between forecasted and observed cases using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and the Bayesian structural time-series (BSTS) models. Overall, the average of observed PCP cases per month in each year were 36.1 and 47.3 for pre- and post-COVID-19, respectively. The estimate for residuals in the ARIMA model was not significantly different in the total PCP-confirmed inpatients (7.4%, p = 0.765). The forecasted PCP cases by the BSTS model were not significantly different from the observed cases in the post-COVID-19 (−0.6%, 95% credible interval; −9.6~9.1%, p = 0.450). The unprecedented strict non-pharmacological interventions did not affect PCP cases.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• non-pharmacological interventions
• <i>Pneumocystis jirovecii</i>
• pandemic
• time-series analysis