Yönetim ve Ekonomi (Jan 2006)
Turizm Sektörünün Türkiye’nin Ekonomik Büyümesi Üzerindeki Etkisi: VAR Analizi Yaklaşımı(The Effect of Tourism Sector on the Economic Growth of Turkey: VAR Analysis Approach)
Abstract
Tourism, a service sector, has shown a very rapid development throughout the world. Today, tourism sector accounts for the 30% of total world services trade on its own. Net contribution of tourism to the economies of countries cannot be calculated precisely in that tourism is a coalescence of sectors, that is, it embodies a number of large and small service sectors. Nevertheless, theoretical and empirical studies on this subject, in both national and international literature, have revealed that tourism has a positive effect on economic growth. Based on this consideration, it is seen that tourism in Turkey, which is a tourism country, developed rapidly especially after 1980 and tried to gain competitive advantage in international tourism sector, consistently with the Heckscher-Ohlin theory. In this context, the aim of this study is to test whether there is a long term relationship between tourism and economic growth, and to display the likely contribution of the sector to economic growth. Time series regarding the tourism receipts of 1963-2004 and GNP have been analyzed through VAR model. The empirical findings obtained have shown that tourism has had a positive effect on economic growth, and the cointegration test has proved that there is a mutual relationship between the two variables in the long term.
