Developing Foresight Model Based on Meta-Synthesis Approach

Abstract

Increasing changes in technological, social, economic, and political sectors, on the one hand, and cross impact between these areas, on the other hand, have put planners and decision makers in a highly complex and uncertain environment. In such a situation, decision-making based on a set of assumptions and a prediction of the future is not sufficient, and consideration of scenarios or alternative futures is necessary. Understanding Baseline and alternative futures is a key point in connecting the organization's vision to the organization's plans. Given that the current models for the foresight process are diverse due to different specialized fields as well as the evolution of the models, it is difficult for researchers to select a model. Therefore, this paper proposes a new process framework for foresight studies by identifying and examining existing models and their components and relationships based on the meta-Synthesis approach. In this regard, 32 foresight models were identified and evaluated on the basis of more than 40 components in the form of three general categories of “model parts”, “model features” and “research method.” The Meta-Synthesized model includes these main sections: "Preparation", "mapping the system of issue", "identifying baseline, alternative and desirable futures", “designing strategies and plans”, and finally “Promote results and model evaluation“.

Keywords

• foresight model
• meta-synthesis
• futures studies