How to Account for Market Volatility in the Conceptual Design of Chemical Processes

Abstract

The conventional definition of economic potentials as proposed by Douglas (1988) considers the operative expenses (OPEX) of chemical plants fixed. The main problem raised by conventional economic potentials is that they are static even if they are used for conceptual design activities. The volatility of markets coupled to demand uncertainty and fluctuation of quotations calls for an innovative approach to economic assessment, capable of removing the static attribute in favor of a dynamic approach. The paper presents a systematic approach to evaluate the possible evolution of the price of commodities to assess a set of possible economic scenarios. Different autoregressive model inputs with standard and moving average time series are analyzed to forecast the distribution of commodity prices that contributes, at different levels, to the definition of dynamic economic potentials.