Spatiotemporal Evolution in Agricultural Water Stress in Sichuan Province Evaluated from the Perspective of Virtual Water

Abstract

【Objective】 This paper aims to assess the indirect influence of virtual water flow on metropolitan-scale agricultural water stress in Sichuan province. It investigates the spatiotemporal variation in this context, elucidating how persistent growth in agricultural water use and the movement of virtual water through agricultural products across the province indirectly impacts regional water stress. 【Method】 The AquaCrop model was employed to calculate the water footprint of 16 different crops from 2000 to 2018 in all metropolitan cities within the province. The calculation of inter-province virtual water flow was based on annual balance between crop production and food demand, by considering the minimum transportation costs cross the province. These calculated results were then used to analyze the influence of virtual water flow on agricultural water stress. 【Result】 From 2000 to 2018, the average water footprint of crop production in Sichuan was estimated to be 28.4 billion cubic meters per year. The total water footprint of crop production in the province exhibited a fluctuation during the studied period, with the most notable change observed in Leshan. The province experienced a net increase in virtual water inflow, with the Western areas receiving more inflow than the Eastern regions. The continuous influx of virtual water has contributed to the alleviation of agricultural water stress in the province, reducing the number of cities experiencing increased water stress due to virtual water outflows from four in 2000 to one in 2018. 【Conclusion】 The analysis of physical and virtual water highlights the need for Sichuan province to enhance the regulation and optimization of virtual water trade as a means to mitigate agricultural water stress.

Keywords

• water footprint of crop production
• spatiotemporal evolution
• virtual water
• agricultural water stress
• sichuan province