Extreme event waves in marine ecosystems: an application to Mediterranean Sea surface chlorophyll

Abstract

We propose a new method to identify and characterise the occurrence of prolonged extreme events in marine ecosystems at the basin scale. There is growing interest in events that can affect ecosystem functions and services in a changing climate. Our method identifies extreme events as the peak occurrences over a predefined threshold (i.e. the 99th percentile) computed from a local time series, and it defines a series of extreme events that are connected over space and time as an extreme event wave (EEW). The main features of EEWs are then characterised by a set of novel indexes, related to initiation, extent, duration and strength. The indexes associated with the areas covered by each EEW were then statistically analysed to highlight the main features of the EEWs in the considered domain. We applied the method to a multidecadal series of winter–spring daily chlorophyll fields that was produced by a validated coupled hydrodynamic–biogeochemical model of the Mediterranean open-sea ecosystem. This application allowed us to identify and characterise surface chlorophyll EEWs in the period from 1994 to 2012. Finally, a fuzzy classification of EEW indexes provided bio-regionalisation of the Mediterranean Sea based on the occurrence of chlorophyll EEWs with different regimes.