Excess death and years of life lost of the residents in a town of Shanghai after the control of COVID-19 liberalized

Abstract

ObjectiveTo understand the excess death and years of life lost of residents in a town in Shanghai after the control of COVID-19 liberalized.MethodsThe death information of the residents was obtained from the death registration report system， and the age specific population data was from the records of Shanghai Pudong public security registered residence system. The period from December 2015 to November 2022 was defined as before the liberalization， and the period from December 2022 to January 2023 was defined as after the liberalization. The SPSS 22.0 time series prediction expert modeler was used to estimate the expected number of deaths. For men and women under 60 years old， 60‒70， 70‒80， 80‒90， and over 90， the following parameters were calculated： expected number of deaths， actual number of deaths， number of excess deaths， excess rate， actual number of deaths， number of years of life lost， number of years of excess deaths， number of years of life lost， and number of years of life lost per capita of excess deaths.ResultsAfter the control of COVID-19 was liberalized， the expected deaths were 125， the actual deaths were 317， and the excess deaths were 192， with an excess rate of 153.60% （192/125）. The excess death accounted for 0.29% （192/66 703） of the total population. The highest excess rate was found in men over 90 years old （300.00%）， 70‒80 years old and women over 90 years old （283.33%， 258.82%， respectively）. Excess death increased with age. The life expectancy of the residents before the liberalization was 84.41 years， including 81.50 years for males and 87.36 years for females. After the liberalization， the life expectancy of residents was 79.88 years， including 77.24 years for men and 82.71 years for women. After the liberalization， the life expectancy of the residents decreased by 4.53 years， including 4.26 years for men and 4.65 years for women. After the liberalization， the average loss of life of the residents who died in excess was 11.60 years， including 11.91 years for men and 11.30 years for women.ConclusionAfter the control of COVID-19 was liberalized， more residents die， but most of them are elderly people over 70 years old.

Keywords

• covid-19
• excess death
• years of life lost
• management and control