Anatomy of the 2022 Scorching Summer in the Yangtze River Basin Using the SINTEX‐F2 Seasonal Prediction System

Abstract

Abstract In July and August 2022, the Yangtze River basin (YRB) experienced its hottest summer since 1961. The SINTEX‐F2 seasonal prediction system initialized in early May predicted the hotter‐than‐normal summer due to its successful prediction of central Pacific La Niña, negative Indian Ocean Dipole and the resultant warming in the tropical West Pacific‐East Indian Ocean (TWP_EIO). The common SST forcing explains only about 26% to the heatwave strength, while the internal variations in the anomalous warming in the TWP_EIO and Europe, surplus precipitation in Pakistan, and local land‐air interaction account for approximately 65%, based on the analysis of 108 ensemble members. These factors have collectively increased the maximum temperature over the YRB through the enhancement and westward expansion of western North Pacific subtropical high. Our findings quantify the relative contributions of external forcing and internal variations to the unprecedented hot event, offering insights into its forming mechanism and potential predictability.

Keywords

• heatwave
• Yangtze River basin
• predictability
• internal variability
• CP La niña
• negative IOD