The effect of hashrate, transaction volume, social media and macroeconomics on Bitcoin before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

Purpose – This research aims to determine the factors that affected Bitcoin price return in the period before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach – The independent variables used in this study are hashrate, transaction volume, social media and some macroeconomics variables. The data are processed using the vector error correction model (VECM) to determine the short-term and long-term relationships between variables. Findings – The research shows that (1) Twitter and Gold significantly affected Bitcoin in the short term before the COVID-19 pandemic; (2) hashrate, transaction volume, Twitter and the financial stress index had a significant effect on Bitcoin in the long term before the COVID-19 pandemic; (3) the volatility index had a significant effect on Bitcoin in the short term during the COVID-19 pandemic; and (4) hashrate, transaction volume, Twitter and CHF/USD had a significant effect on Bitcoin in the long term during the COVID-19 pandemic. Research limitations/implications – This research provides explanation about factors affecting Bitcoin so investors and regulators can pay more attention and prepare for the potential risks as well as to get a good understanding of market conditions for greater crypto adoption in the future. Originality/value – The novelty in this study is the various factors driving the Bitcoin price were analyzed before and during the COVID-19 pandemic including the social media, as sentiment, interestingly, is being a predictive power for Bitcoin price return.

Keywords

• Cryptocurrency
• COVID-19
• Twitter
• VECM method
• Short and long-term relationships