The Prediction of Evacuation Efficiency on Metro Platforms Based on Passengers’ Decision-Making Capability

Abstract

In the research, decision-making capabilities are explored in relation to the prediction of evacuation efficiency to improve forecast accuracy on metro platforms. For this purpose, this study reviewed theories related to evacuation behaviours utilising the anomaly-seeking approach and the paradigm of relationship development. The conceptual framework of decision-making capability and evacuation behaviours was explored based on risk perception, level of emergency knowledge, survivability and emotion, and their relationship with the partial least squares equation was constructed. A predictive model of evacuation efficiency and its differential equations incorporating this relationship were also proposed based on the epidemic model. By developing and testing the conceptual framework and model, theoretical support is provided for evacuation behaviour, while assisting emergency management in developing plans and measures to respond to emergencies on metro platforms. This study realises the possibility of predicting evacuation efficiency from a decision-making capability perspective.

Keywords

• decision-making capability
• evacuation behaviours
• metro evacuation
• evacuation efficiency
• prediction