Urban hydrological model (UHM) developed for an urban flash flood simulation and analysis of the flood intensity sensitivity to urbanization

Abstract

An urban hydrological model (UHM) forced by radar-observed rainfalls was developed for producing rainstorm-related urban inundation maps for obtaining flash flood forecasts. The parameter sets of the land use and land cover (LULC) and urban drainage capacity derive from satellite multispectral images and high spatial resolution GIS datasets, relating to the urban hydrology and hydraulic properties. The hydrodynamics model was based on the simplified shallow water equation (SWE) neglecting the convective acceleration and pressure terms in the St. Venant equation. The intense convective rainstorm that induced heavy flash floods on 21 Jul. 2012 and the large-scale stratiform precipitation that occurred from 19 Jul. to 21 Jul. 2016 in Beijing were deliberately selected to perform flood-simulation and model-validation case studies. The simulation of severe flooding scenarios in the 2012 event was fairly reproduced and verified using media reports. In the case studies, the sensitivity tests verified that the flood intensity (1) would be enhanced slightly on pure impervious surfaces, (2) would be reduced significantly on pure pervious surfaces, and (3) would increase by 30%–60% without a drainage system. No false alarm could be perceived in the simulation of the 2016 event in a prolonging stratiform precipitation. The case studies confirmed the perspectives of using the hydrological model fed by QPEs/QPFs for flash flood forecasting and concluded that the hourly precipitation surpassing 30 mm/h would be indicative in impending flash floods in Beijing metropolis.

Keywords

• Flash flood forecast
• hydrological model
• sensitivity analysis