A Study on the Transnational Spillover Effects of Bank Risk and Sovereign Risk–From the Perspective of COVID-19 Epidemic Situation

Abstract

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In recent years, the world economy and the global financial system have closely intertwined, deepened economic and financial integration via cross-border investments, financings, imports, and exports. Since banks serve as the core of a country's financial system, the risk status of banks directly affects the country's national credit and financial security. The current complexities of the international and domestic environments are increasing geopolitical risks. Moreover, there is increasing uncertainty recognition in the financial and economic development of all countries, more systemic banking risks, and sovereign risk transfer elements. In this scenario, resisting external risk input is essential to enhance risk prevention ability. Therefore, this paper adopted the VAR-based time domain and frequency model for a multi-dimensional analysis of the two perspectives of banking and sovereign risk spillover effects. The empirical results indicate that the entire sample under the static overflow effect always shows that most of the absorption is the banking sector risk, and sovereign risk is the leading risk spillover. In the frequency domain perspective, the short-term spillover effects between bank and sovereign risk are dominant. Moreover, in relation to the outbreak and continuous spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, the spillover effects are often dominated by adverse, long-term scenarios.

Keywords

• bank risk
• sovereign risk
• frequency domain VAR model
• risk spillover
• COVID-19