Epidemic spread simulation in an area with a high-density crowd using a SEIR-based model.

Abstract

Understanding the spread of infectious diseases is an extremely essential step to preventing them. Thus, correct modeling and simulation approaches are critical for elucidating the transmission of infectious diseases and improving the control of epidemics. The primary objective of this study is to simulate the spread of communicable diseases in an urban rail transit station. Data were collected by a field investigation in the city of Ningbo, China. A SEIR-based model was developed to simulate the spread of infectious diseases in Tianyi station, considering four groups of passengers (susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered) and a 14-day incubation period. Based on the historical data of infectious diseases, the parameters of the SEIR infectious disease model were clarified, and a sensitivity analysis of the parameters was also performed. The results showed that the contact rate (CR), infectivity (I), and average illness duration (AID) were positively correlated with the number of infections. It was also found that the length of the average incubation time (AIT) was positively correlated with the number of exposed individuals and negatively correlated with the number of infectors. These simulation results provide support for the validity and reliability of using the SEIR model in studies of the spread of epidemics and facilitate the development of effective measures to prevent and control an epidemic.