Risk Factors Associated with Mortality in COVID-19 Patient’s: Survival Analysis

Abstract

Background: The effect of related factors on recovery or death rates may vary from country to country. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the relationship between demographic, clinical, laboratory factors on the survival rates of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Shahroud, Iran. Methods: This is an analytical study of the estimation of the survival of patients with COVID-19. Patients who had positive PCR test were considered as COVID-19 cases, and the 2-month survival of these patients was estimated. Among the diseases, heart disease and diabetes were considered as separate variables, and the patients' histories of other diseases were included in the model as comorbidities. Results: Of 396 confirmed patients hospitalized, 109 patients (27.5%) had a history of heart disease, 100 (25.3%) were diabetic, and 80 (20.2%) had a history of other comorbidities. The number of deaths due to the disease was 59 (14.9%). The median age of those who died was 76 years. The multivariate Cox regression analysis shows that heart disease increases hazard ratio more than two times (HR=2.37, 95% CI: 1.33-4.23). The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) factor, (HR=1.15, 95% 1.08-1.22), and older age (HR=1.06, 95% CI: 1.03-1.08) increases the risk of death significantly. Conclusion: The heart disease history, NLR factor and older age are associated with death of COVID-19 and may be helpful for the early warning and prediction of disease progression.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• Iran
• Mortality
• Risk factors
• Survival