Short-Term Load Forecasting of the Greek Electricity System

Abstract

Short-term load forecasting is an essential instrument in power system planning, operation, and control. It is involved in the scheduling of capacity dispatch, system reliability analysis, and maintenance planning for turbines and generators. Despite the high level of development of advanced types of machine learning models in commercial codes and platforms, the prediction accuracy needs further improvement, especially in certain short, problematic time periods. To this end, this paper employs public domain electric load data and typical climatic data to make 24-hour-ahead hourly electricity load forecasts of the Greek system based on two types of robust, standard feed-forward artificial neural networks. The accuracy and stability of the prediction performance are measured by means of the modeling error values. The current prediction accuracy levels of mean absolute percentage error, mean value μ = 2.61% with σ = 0.33% of the Greek system operator for 2022, attained with noon correction, are closely matched with a simple feed-forward artificial neural network, attaining mean value μ = 3.66% with σ = 0.30% with true 24-hour-ahead prediction. Specific instances of prediction failure in cases of unexpectedly high or low energy demand are analyzed and discussed. The role of the structure and quality of input data of the training datasets is demonstrated to be the most critical factor in further increasing the accuracy and reliability of forecasting.

Keywords

• electricity load curve
• day-ahead forecasting
• artificial neural networks