Designing a Framework to Improve Time Series Data of Construction Projects: Application of a Simulation Model and Singular Spectrum Analysis

Abstract

During a construction project life cycle, project costs and time estimations contribute greatly to baseline scheduling. Besides, schedule risk analysis and project control are also influenced by the above factors. Although many papers have offered estimation techniques, little attempt has been made to generate project time series data as daily progressive estimations in different project environments that could help researchers in generating general and customized formulae in further studies. This paper, however, is an attempt to introduce a new simulation approach to reflect the data regarding time series progress of the project, considering the specifications and the complexity of the project and the environment where the project is performed. Moreover, this simulator can equip project managers with estimated information, which reassures them of the execution stages of the project although they lack historical data. A case study is presented to show the usefulness of the model and its applicability in practice. In this study, singular spectrum analysis has been employed to analyze the simulated outputs, and the results are separated based on their signal and noise trends. The signal trend is used as a point-of-reference to compare the outputs of a simulation employing S-curve technique results and the formulae corresponding to earned value management, as well as the life of a given project.

Keywords

• project management
• project progress simulation
• singular spectrum analysis
• S-curve technique
• earned value management