Advances in Short-Term Solar Forecasting: A Review and Benchmark of Machine Learning Methods and Relevant Data Sources

Abstract

Solar forecasting is becoming increasingly important due to the exponential growth in total global solar capacity each year. More photovoltaic (PV) penetration in the grid poses problems for grid stability due to the inherent intermittent and variable nature of PV power production. Therefore, forecasting of solar quantities becomes increasingly important to grid operators and market participants. This review presents the most recent relevant studies focusing on short-term forecasting of solar irradiance and PV power production. Recent research has increasingly turned to machine learning to address this challenge. The paper provides a discussion about building a solar forecasting model, including evaluation measures and machine learning method selection through analysed literature. Given that machine learning is data-driven, the focus of this review has been placed on data sources referenced in the literature. Open-access data sources have been compiled and explored. The main contribution of this paper is the establishment of a benchmark for assessing the performance of solar forecasting models. This benchmark utilizes the mentioned open-source datasets, offering a standardized platform for future research. It serves the crucial purpose of streamlining investigations and facilitating direct comparisons among different forecasting methodologies in the field of solar forecasting.

Keywords

• solar forecasting
• irradiance
• machine learning
• open-source data