RUDN Journal of Economics (Dec 2023)
«New normal» and the Сhinese model of «dual circulation»: To the question of the «present stage» of the global economy’ development
Abstract
The reserch explores multiple approaches to the term “new normality”, which appeared in the scientific economic community after the 2008 crisis, and became relevant again with the proclamation of a “new economic era” in China, the “entry” of the world community into the era of the Anthropocene, and the collision of the world with a problem of global significance - the COVID-19 virus. The relevance of the topic is also due to modern conditions: the turbulence of the world economy, which it has entered not only since the beginning of the pandemic, but also as a result of those “tectonic” shifts in the system of international economic relations that occurred after Russia launched a special military operation. The need to supplement and expand the term “new normality” comes from the questions: “If the term “new normality” or “norm” arises, then what is the “old norm”? In relation to what phenomena or processes is this term used and what is the set of definitions and approaches to it?”. The purpose of this article is to identify the main features of the “new normality” in the context of the growth and development phase that the Chinese economy entered in 2014, in particular. The “new normality” in Chinese is based on achieving a more diversified structure of the national economy, ensuring sustainable growth and a more even distribution of benefits. The etymology and development of the term “new normality” are considered. Despite the multiplicity of approaches, a single definition for the term in question has not developed, neither within the framework of economic science, nor within the framework of other areas. The prerequisites underlying the “new norm” in Chinese are analyzed in detail, including those that served as the basis for revising the country’s economic development model and implementing the model known today as the “double circulation” model. The author raises the question of the need to develop an approach to the term also in the key of current events, tectonic shifts in the world economy and the system of international economic relations, which, objectively, can be characterized as a “crisis” of the modern stage of the development of the world economy, known as globalization, or a transitional period, a transitional stage to a new, a completely different stage in the development of the world economy. The main conclusion of the study is as follows: the current stage of the development of the world economy, that is, globalization, is experiencing an acute phase of turbulence, which obviously began long before the last economic crisis of 2008. The events of the last few years show that the effects of globalization to a certain extent cease to justify themselves: increased international competition, increased protectionism policies and an increase in the number of trade disputes within the WTO, escalation of “trade wars”, COVID-19 and its impact on the entire system of international economic relations, disruption and restructuring of production and logistics chains, as well as the exit of TNCs from the Russian market as a result of a special military operation, all this indicates that the current stage of development of the world economy is now a transitional period not because of the effects and processes that occur under the influence of certain events, but because of the restructuring of the entire global economic and geopolitical architecture. All of the above, in turn, requires an adequate response from the economic schools in the form of the need to develop theoretical approaches to the question of the transitive nature of the current stage of the development of the world economy and the transition to another stage.
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