Estimation of extreme precipitation events in Estonia and Italy using dual-polarization weather radar quantitative precipitation estimations

Abstract

Evaluating extreme rainfall for a certain location is commonly considered when designing stormwater management systems. Rain gauge data are widely used to estimate rainfall intensities for a given return period. However, the poor spatial and temporal resolution of operational gauges is the main limiting factor. Several studies have used rainfall estimates based on weather radar horizontal reflectivity (Zh), but they come with a great caveat: while proven reliable for low or moderate rainfall rates, they are subject to major errors in extreme rainfall and convective cases. It is widely known that C-band weather radar can underestimate precipitation intensity due to signal attenuation or overestimate it due to hail and clutter contamination. From the late 1990s, dual-polarization weather radar started to become operational in the national surveillance radar network in Europe, providing innovative quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) based on polarimetric variables. This study circumvents Zh shortcomings by using specific differential-phase (Kdp) data from operational dual-polarization C-band weather radars. The rain intensity estimates based on a specific differential-phase data are immune to attenuation and less affected by hail contamination. In this study, for the first time, QPEs based on polarimetric observations by operational C-band weather radars and without any rain gauge adjustments are analyzed. The purpose is to estimate return periods for 1 h rainfall total computed from polarimetric weather radar data using non-adjusted QPEs based on R(Zh,Kdp) data and to compare the results with those derived using R(Zh) and rain gauge data. Only the warm period during the year is considered here, as most of the extreme precipitation events for such a duration occur for both places studied (Italy and Estonia) at this time. Limiting the dataset to warm periods also allows us to use the radar-based rainfall quantitative precipitation estimations, which are more reliable than the snowfall ones. Data from operational dual polarimetric C-band weather radar sites are used from both Italy and Estonia. Given climatologically homogeneous regions, this study demonstrates that polarimetric weather radar observations can provide reliable QPEs compared to single-polarization estimates with respect to rain gauges and that they can provide a reliable estimation of return periods of 1 h rainfall total, even for relatively short time series.