Decision-making model of electricity purchasing agent service of power grid enterprises for multi-time-scale market transactions

Abstract

Power grid enterprises need to monitor the purchasing load of the agent and the changes of the market price， and evaluate the risks caused by the multiple uncertainties of the fluctuation of market transaction price， actual load fluctuation and demand response when allocating the proportion of power procurement in the multi-time scale electricity market. Based on the portfolio theory， a power procurement surrogate decision-making model of electricity purchasing agent service of decision-making model for power grid enterprises in the multi-time scale electricity market considering users’ demand response is proposed. Firstly， the transaction strategies of power grid enterprises participating in the electricity market are analyzed， and the profit and risk models of electricity purchasing agent service strategy in the multi-time scale electricity market are established. Then， the scenario analysis method is used to simulate the effect of actual load fluctuation on power procurement surrogate in this month. Based on the portfolio theory， an optimization model for the electricity purchasing agent service of power grid enterprises is constructed. Finally， the actual data of the Zhejiang spot market trial operation and the demand response exercise are used for simulation analysis. The results illustrate that the decision-making model of electricity purchasing agent service of power grid enterprises can effectively reduce the risk， and allocate the proportion of power procurement in the multi-time scale electricity market according to different risk preferences and degrees of load forecasting accuracy.

Keywords

• power grid enterprises
• electricity purchasing agent service
• uncertainty
• demand response
• portfolio theory