Prognosis prediction and risk stratification of breast cancer patients based on a mitochondria-related gene signature

Abstract

Abstract As the malignancy with the highest global incidence, breast cancer represents a significant threat to women’s health. Recent advances have shed light on the importance of mitochondrial function in cancer, particularly in metabolic reprogramming within tumors. Recognizing this, we developed a novel risk signature based on mitochondrial-related genes to improve prognosis prediction and risk stratification in breast cancer patients. In this study, transcriptome data and clinical features of breast cancer samples were extracted from two sources: the TCGA, serving as the training set, and the METABRIC, used as the independent validation set. We developed the signature using LASSO-Cox regression and assessed its prognostic efficacy via ROC curves. Furthermore, the signature was integrated with clinical features to create a Nomogram model, whose accuracy was validated through clinical calibration curves and decision curve analysis. To further elucidate prognostic variations between high and low-risk groups, we conducted functional enrichment and immune infiltration analyses. Additionally, the study encompassed a comparison of mutation landscapes and drug sensitivity, providing a comprehensive understanding of the differing characteristics in these groups. Conclusively, we established a risk signature comprising 8 mitochondrial-related genes—ACSL1, ALDH2, MTHFD2, MRPL13, TP53AIP1, SLC1A1, ME3, and BCL2A1. This signature was identified as an independent risk predictor for breast cancer patient survival, exhibiting a significant high hazard ratio (HR = 3.028, 95%CI 2.038–4.499, P < 0.001). Patients in the low-risk group showed a more favorable prognosis, with enhanced immune infiltration, distinct mutation landscapes, and greater sensitivity to anti-tumor drugs. In contrast, the high-risk group exhibited an adverse trend in these aspects. This risk signature represents a novel and effective prognostic indicator, suggesting valuable insights for patient stratification in breast cancer.