Indonesia’s Energy Demand Projection Until 2060

Abstract

Changes that occur along with the times have consequences for increasing the need for various resources, especially energy. In Indonesia, various changes that occur will also affect the pattern of energy consumption, both qualitatively and quantitatively. This paper describes various aspects related to change and projects over the next 40 years the pattern and quantitative aspects of energy demand in Indonesia. This study is based on historical data by applying related parameters that influence one another. The methodology used is the application of a modeling system with the software 'Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED)'. The results obtained are a description of Indonesia's energy demand projections until 2060 per sector and the form or type of energy needed. The projection results show that in the next 40 years the total energy demand will increase from 195.0 Mtoe in 2020 to 556.5 Mtoe in 2060. From this amount there is a percentage change in the need for each type of energy between the early years of 2020 to the end of 2060. Motor fuel changed from 28% to 34%, while electricity changed from 24% in 2020 to 28% in 2060. In the demand sector, the share of demand decreased in households from 29% in 2020 to 20% in 2060. While other sectors experienced an increase in share in various values. Transportation rose from 19% to 22%, ACM from 8% to 9%, manufacturing remained 34%, while services rose from 10 to 15%. During study period there two important parameters decrease, those are population growth and energy intensity.

Keywords

• population growth
• GDP growth
• energy intensity
• technological developments
• energy demand