Spatial and temporal changes and development predictions of urban green spaces in Jinan City, Shandong, China

Abstract

The study of long-term changes to urban green space reveals the reasons for changes in the spatial pattern of urban green space and predicts the future development trends, which is of great importance for urban green space protection and integrated urban development. This study used Markov Chain and PLUS models to explore the spatial and temporal patterns of changes to green space in urban and rural areas in Jinan City during recent rapid urbanization and the driving forces behind them. The results show that from 2000 to 2020, the decrease in urban green space in Jinan City slowed down gradually, and that elevation and population density were the primary factors influencing changes in urban green space. In the simulation projections, the ecologically protected development scenario had a relatively low rate of site change and was more protective of arable land and green space. Ecological conservation development was predicted to result in a decrease in unused urban land and to reflect the advantages of intensive land use. The findings will provide decision-makers with ideas related to the sustainable development of urban green space.

Keywords

• Land use
• Urban green space
• Land use transfer matrix
• PLUS model
• Jinan City