Investigation of water management evolution based on Dunning-Kruger theory

Abstract

Abstract: The Dunning–Kruger theory is a cognitive bias, in which people with low abilities or little expertise, grow high self-steam and value too high themselves. Water management actors, also experience such effect, that could lead to misevaluation of problems and their solutions. Overestimation of the ability and experience by water management actors can appear in different forms. The analysis carried out in this study shows that water management in Iran has been hopeless for a long time. Lack of knowledge management caused expertise and maturity in the actors of the water management system to not grow, and various plans in this ministry of energy have faced hesitation (S'ç S), unfortunately it has been extended in line with the deterioration of water resources. In other words, based on Dunning-Kruger theory & Eisenhower decision matrix the movement towards transformation and reform has not yet started. The identified solutions show that this movement can start with goal-setting and foresight (that is, developing a vision and strategic plan), knowledge management and change management based on the principles of "sustainable and resilient development". Of course, in order to avoid deviation from the path of evolution, it is also necessary to determine suitable indicators for monitoring the direction of movement.

Keywords

• oversimplification
• ignorance
• knowledge management
• fluctuation
• routineness trap
• dunning-kruger theory